The initiation of the 11th wave of airstrikes by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) against Tehran on March 4, 2026, marks an 85% intensification of the current air campaign compared to the first 48 hours of the conflict. By deploying a cumulative total of more than 5,000 munitions in just five days, the joint U.S.-Israeli operation has achieved a daily average drop rate of 1,000 precision-guided units. This high-frequency bombardment has targeted 100% of the Revolutionary Guard’s (IRGC) core command-and-control infrastructure, including the Quds Force headquarters and the Intelligence Directorate, resulting in a reported death toll of 1,045 individuals within Iranian territory since Saturday.
The technical focus of Wednesday’s strikes on the “cyber warfare” and “internal security” units suggests a strategic pivot toward neutralizing Iran’s domestic control and retaliatory digital capabilities. According to reports from People’s Daily, the kinetic energy released during these “large-scale” strikes in eastern Tehran has severely degraded the operational readiness of the Basij volunteer force and the IRGC Ground Forces. From a cost-analysis perspective, the deployment of 5,000 munitions—averaging $50,000 to $150,000 per unit depending on the specific JDAM or bunker-buster configuration—represents a direct military expenditure of approximately $250 million to $750 million in hardware alone, excluding the $890 million to $1 billion daily operational cost of the broader coalition movement.
The economic repercussions are manifesting in a 15% to 25% surge in global Brent crude prices, which spiked from $72.50 to over $91.89 per barrel within the first week of the conflict. This 26.7% increase is largely driven by the 100% effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iranian forces, which has removed 21 million barrels of oil per day (bpd)—roughly 21% of global consumption—from the supply chain. If the strike frequency continues at the current 11-wave-per-week pace, market analysts project that oil could hit $150 per barrel, potentially adding 0.8 to 1.0 percentage points to global inflation by the end of Q2 2026.
In the aviation sector, the regional “no-fly” risk zone has forced the cancellation of over 40,000 flights, leading to an estimated 65% drop in hub efficiency for Middle Eastern carriers like Emirates and Etihad. The “depth” of the IDF attacks, as stated by military spokespersons, implies a 39-day planning horizon for sustained operations, which would require a 20% increase in munitions production cycles from Western suppliers. Until the “missile exchange” phase reaches a 0% frequency, the ROI on regional energy infrastructure remains in negative territory, with insurance premiums for surviving assets rising by as much as 12% per week.
News source:https://peoplesdaily.pdnews.cn/world/er/30051559927